Archives → 2022 → Vol. 62, № 4 → pp. 424–433
Article
Assessment of Ecological Risk to Biota of the Stepovogo Bay of the Kara Sea after the Hypothetical Accidental Contamination
Kryshev A.I., Sazykina T.G., Katkova M.N., Kryshev I.I., Buryakova A.A., Pavlova N.N.
Research and Production Association “Typhoon”, Obninsk, Russia
Abstract
A mathematical dynamic modeling of the radionuclides accumulation in the marine biota of the Stepovogo Bay was carried out for the scenario of a hypothetical accident with a spontaneous chain reaction with a submerged submarine K-27. The dynamic model MARINA II was used to calculate the transfer of radionuclides with water masses and the transition to the bottom sediments of the Bay. The modeling results were applied to calculate the dynamics of the radiation dose rate for the marine biota of the Stepovogo Bay and to assess the environmental risk for the considered hypothetical accident scenario. The predicted radioactive contami-nation of water is determined mainly by 137Cs and 90Sr and contamination of bottom sediments − by 137Cs, 90Sr and 151Sm. The averaged contamination of sediments by 137Cs in this scenario is predicted at a level that is significantly lower, than the criterion for attribution to solid radioactive waste. Model assessments have shown that the maximum levels of accidental 137Cs and 90Sr in the fish of the Stepovogo Bay reached one year after a single release, and it’s don’t exceed the established hygienic standards. The highest risk index in the considered accident scenario was estimated for a marine mammal (provided that the animal is permanently located in the Bay) and amounted to 0.07. Negative radiation effects are not expected to occur for the ecosystem of the Stepovogo Bay at this level of environmental risk. The obtained value of the generalized indicator of radioecological safety indicates a weak radiation effect on the ecosystem of the Bay for a marine mammal in the Stepovogo Bay.
Keywords
Mathematical modeling, radioactivity, biota, Arctic, environmental risk, hypothetical accident, scenario, Stepovogo Bay, forecast, radiation impact
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